En condiciones normales, no cabría esperar que una empresa se financiara a un coste inferior al de su propio soberano. El Estado fija el marco regulatorio, recauda los impuestos y emite los bonos que sirven de referencia para valorar el resto de activos, por lo que su curva actúa como suelo. En Francia, ese suelo ha cedido.

Según datos de Bloomberg, en torno al 38% de los bonos corporativos franceses con grado de inversión, unos 215.000 millones de euros, cotizan hoy con rentabilidades inferiores a las de los bonos del Estado francés (OAT) de vencimiento comparable. A comienzos de año, el importe rondaba los 12.000 millones. A principios de octubre, Air Liquide colocó 2.000 millones de euros con un libro de órdenes de unos 12.500 millones y fijó el precio de sus dos tramos a tipo fijo por debajo de la curva OAT.

A nuestro juicio, el movimiento está justificado, aunque solo en parte. Refleja un deterioro real de la confianza en las finanzas públicas francesas. Sin embargo, no convierte a un emisor corporativo francés en mejor riesgo de crédito que el propio Estado, y sería prudente no interpretarlo como una nueva normalidad.

Cómo se ha llegado a esta situación

A principios de octubre, el diferencial a 10 años entre el OAT y el Bund alemán cerró la semana en 141 pb, apenas unos 10 pb por debajo del máximo semanal de enero de 2012, en plena crisis de deuda soberana europea. La ampliación registrada solo en esa semana, de 32 pb, es la mayor de nuestra serie desde 2008. A 9 de octubre, el diferencial se había moderado ligeramente, hasta 137 pb.

La evolución se lee con claridad. Superada la crisis de 2011-12, el diferencial se mantuvo durante buena parte de una década en un rango de 20 a 60 pb. La disolución de la Asamblea Nacional por parte de Emmanuel Macron en junio de 2024 lo llevó por encima de 75 pb en una sola semana, y desde entonces no ha regresado de forma sostenida a su rango anterior. En las últimas semanas, la ampliación se ha acelerado de nuevo.

La comparación con Italia resulta aún más significativa. La rentabilidad francesa a 10 años superó por primera vez a la italiana el 15 de septiembre de 2025. Durante varios meses, ambas curvas se cruzaron en repetidas ocasiones. Desde el 4 de agosto de 2026, sin embargo, Francia se financia por encima de Italia en todas las sesiones, con un diferencial de unos 30 pb a mediados de octubre. España se financia actualmente unos 75 pb por debajo de Francia.

No lo interpretamos como ruido de mercado. El diferencial es más amplio en los plazos largos que en los cortos, lo que indica que los inversores exigen una prima duradera por riesgo fiscal y político, y no una corrección técnica transitoria.

Factores de amplificación

Los fundamentales explican la dirección del movimiento. Tres características propias del mercado francés explican su intensidad.

La primera es la estructura de tenedores. En torno a la mitad de la deuda pública francesa está en manos de inversores no residentes, una proporción muy superior a la de Italia o España. Esto hace que los OAT sean especialmente sensibles a los cambios en el sentimiento internacional, con independencia de la evolución doméstica.

La segunda es el apalancamiento. Los hedge funds habían acumulado posiciones significativas en OAT, cubiertas con swaps y financiadas mediante repo a corto plazo. La caída de los precios activó los stop-loss y obligó a deshacer posiciones. Algunas estimaciones atribuyen a este desapalancamiento hasta la mitad de la ampliación reciente del diferencial.

La tercera es la ausencia de un respaldo garantizado. El BCE dispone del Instrumento para la Protección de la Transmisión (TPI) para contener movimientos desordenados de los diferenciales, pero su activación exige el cumplimiento del marco fiscal europeo. Al encontrarse Francia en un procedimiento de déficit excesivo, el mercado no descuenta su utilización.

Por qué los emisores corporativos cotizan por debajo del Estado

El factor principal es la diversificación geográfica de los ingresos. L’Oréal, TotalEnergies o Air Liquide generan la mayor parte de su facturación fuera de Francia, por lo que su perfil de crédito depende más de la demanda global que del presupuesto francés. El Estado, en cambio, está expuesto íntegramente al riesgo doméstico. El mercado está descontando esa diferencia.

Los factores técnicos completan el cuadro. El Tesoro francés está emitiendo volúmenes récord de OAT, mientras que la oferta de papel corporativo de calidad es limitada. Los fondos de crédito y las aseguradoras que deben mantenerse invertidos en renta fija corporativa en euros compiten por un número reducido de emisores, lo que comprime aún más sus rentabilidades.

Por qué la anomalía podría no ser duradera

El argumento geográfico es sólido, pero tiene límites.

En primer lugar, el Estado conserva su potestad tributaria. Cuando las finanzas públicas están bajo presión, las grandes empresas suelen ser de las primeras llamadas a contribuir, mediante recargos extraordinarios sobre el impuesto de sociedades o gravámenes sectoriales. Un emisor es «más seguro que el Estado» solo hasta que el Estado decide trasladarle parte de la factura.

En segundo lugar, los instrumentos no son directamente comparables. Los OAT figuran entre los bonos más líquidos del mundo, son elegibles como colateral en repo y computan como activos líquidos de alta calidad (HQLA) de nivel 1 para los bancos. Un bono corporativo no ofrece ninguna de estas ventajas, de modo que parte de su menor rentabilidad responde a una prima de escasez y no a un menor riesgo de crédito.

Por último, la experiencia histórica no respalda una desconexión permanente. En 2011-12, varios emisores corporativos españoles e italianos también cotizaron con rentabilidades inferiores a las de sus soberanos. Cuando el BCE intervino y los diferenciales soberanos se normalizaron, la anomalía se corrigió. En un escenario de crisis de deuda francesa, el contagio y las tensiones de liquidez afectarían también a los emisores corporativos.

Bancos franceses: donde se concentra el riesgo

Si bien algunos grupos industriales y de consumo se han desvinculado del riesgo soberano, no ocurre lo mismo con los bancos franceses. Mantienen una exposición elevada a la deuda pública francesa y sus costes de financiación evolucionan en línea con los del Estado. El coste de la protección frente a impago (CDS) sobre la deuda bancaria francesa supera ya al de entidades europeas comparables.

Para los responsables de tesorería corporativa, es aquí donde el tema adquiere una dimensión práctica. Depósitos, papel comercial bancario y fondos monetarios con sobreponderación en papel francés incorporan una exposición indirecta al riesgo soberano francés que, con frecuencia, nunca se ha evaluado de forma explícita.

Próximos catalizadores

En las próximas semanas destacan dos citas: la revisión de la calificación de Francia por parte de Moody’s el 23 de octubre y la reunión de política monetaria del BCE el 29 de octubre, en paralelo al debate parlamentario sobre los presupuestos de 2027.

Que emisores corporativos franceses se financien por debajo de su soberano refleja hasta qué punto se ha deteriorado la confianza en las finanzas públicas francesas, aunque su perfil de riesgo siga vinculado al Estado que los grava. Para los inversores, el ejercicio relevante es cuantificar la exposición al riesgo francés que ya incorporan sus carteras de liquidez y determinar si responde a una decisión deliberada.

Notas y fuentes

Datos de mercado: Bloomberg, análisis de New Momentum; fuentes de prensa utilizadas como contexto. Diferenciales en cierres semanales; rentabilidades en cierres diarios. Datos a 16 de octubre de 2026.

After nine months of waiting, the Fed finally pulled the trigger with a 25-bp cut, taking Fed Funds down to 4.00–4.25%.

Powell called it “risk management,” not the start of a big easing cycle, which kind of left markets scratching their heads.

📌 Asia: loved it at first, with the Nikkei touching 45,000 intraday, thanks to tech stocks flying. But a stronger yen quickly spoiled the party.

📌 US: the Dow managed a small win (+0.6%), while the S&P (-0.1%) and Nasdaq (-0.3%) reminded everyone that sentiment is fragile.

📌 Europe: futures pointed to a quiet open, slightly in the green. Nothing dramatic.

Here’s the thing though:

Bloomberg OIS data shows traders don’t buy the “one and done” story.

Pricing now points to four more cuts by mid-2026, with implied rates close to 3.0%. That’s way more aggressive than the Fed’s own dot plot (two this year, one next).

Markets clearly think Powell’s hand will be forced…

And let’s not forget the politics: a Trump appointee pushing for a deeper cut, ongoing noise around Fed independence…it’s messy, and investors hate messy.

👉 For treasurers and fixed income folks, the takeaway is simple:

📍“Higher for longer” is cracking.
📍Volatility around the Fed path isn’t going anywhere.
📍Liquidity tools need to stay flexible.

Powell summed it up perfectly: “There are no risk-free paths.” True, but that’s also why opportunities are popping up everywhere.

Source: Bloomberg

⚠️ The #Fed and #ECB interest rate spread is at historically unusual levels. The Fed keeps its policy unchanged at 4.25–4.5%, while the ECB’s cycle appears to be on hold. Markets anticipate the gap will start to close in the coming months.

💰 No further cuts are priced in Europe in 2025. Maybe one in 2026. For now, the dovish cycle is complete: «wait and see» is the message.

✂️ US futures price in around 50bps of easing by end-2025. Two cuts may be on the table before year-end, even as Fed officials argue that inflation remains a bigger risk.

📊 The latest Fed Minutes made it official: most members see #inflation as a bigger risk than jobs. #Tariffs are gasoline for that fear, with the risk now that expectations get untethered. Meanwhile, #payroll revisions showed hiring stalled, and #unemployment rose to 4.2%.

🎤 Next up is #JacksonHole. Powell has the stage to alter tone. Soft labor data argues for cuts, wholesale price spikes argue for patience. Don’t expect him to commit to a move. More likely, he keeps it data-dependent until the September meeting.

🧭 Final takeaway: divergence won’t last forever. Markets are already betting on convergence. Positioning for that shift could matter more than the timing of the first cut.

⚠️ When hashtag#France yields more than hashtag#Spain, something’s off in the Eurozone playbook. This quarter, 30Y French OATs hit 4.21%, overtaking Spain’s 4.14% — a rare reversal. Markets are rethinking who they trust, and for how long.

💰Even in hashtag#Germany, the 30Y bund trades above 3.22%, despite hashtag#ECB cuts. With a €1T fiscal plan on the horizon, investors demand more to hold duration.

✂️And hashtag#Italy? Surprisingly quiet. Its 30Y hashtag#BTP yields 4.46%, but issuance is down €19B YoY. Sometimes, doing less is doing more.

📊 And short-term bonds? They’re talking too.
The France–Spain 5Y hashtag#spread has been negative for most of the past year. hashtag#Portugal is outperforming both, and hashtag#Greece isn’t the clear outlier anymore.
This isn’t just about rates — it’s about fiscal erosion 💸, and markets are recalibrating hashtag#risk. ⚖️

🧭 Final takeaway: It’s time to hashtag#diversify (seriously).
Still relying on yesterday’s “safe names”? France’s slide proves that reputation shifts can outpace spreads — and portfolios must keep up.

At New Momentum, we help clients rethink sovereign risk with clarity, discipline and flexibility. Whether you’re repositioning your fixed income core or testing new exposures — we’re here to help.

📬 Let’s talk — before the market sends its next wake-up call. 🚨

📌 The Federal Reserve concluded 2024 with a third consecutive interest rate cut, emphasizing a renewed focus on tackling inflation. Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that inflation projections have worsened, delaying the achievement of the 2% target. This prompted a more cautious approach to future rate cuts, now expected to be fewer than initially anticipated.

📌 Recent data reignited concerns about inflation stagnating above the Fed’s goal, marking a strategic shift from earlier concerns about labor market softening. Policymakers now forecast inflation at 2.5% by the end of 2025, and they do not expect to hit the 2% target until 2027.

📌 Market reactions were swift and severe, with US Treasury yields and stocks dropping sharply, while the dollar surged to its strongest level in over two years. The Fed’s cumulative rate cuts in 2024—amounting to 1% over three meetings—represent the steepest reductions since 2001 outside of a crisis.

📌 External factors, including proposed policies by President-elect Donald Trump, have added uncertainty to inflation forecasts. These include tax cuts, tariffs, and other fiscal measures, which many economists fear could fuel inflation further. Powell emphasized the importance of cautious policy adjustments amidst these uncertainties.

Source: Bloomberg

The traditional divide between Eurozone core countries (like Germany and France) and peripheral ones (such as Italy, Spain, and Greece) is fading. Historically, this distinction was rooted in sovereign debt crises, with core nations representing stability and peripherals being perceived as fiscally fragile. However, bond yield spreads between these groups have narrowed significantly, signaling a shift in investor sentiment.

Key Drivers of Change

1.    Next Generation EU (NGEU):
The NGEU program, introduced in response to the pandemic, has provided low-cost loans and grants to foster economic reforms and cohesion within the EU. This has reduced the risk of fragmentation in the Eurozone, helping stabilize peripheral economies.

2.    ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI):
The European Central Bank has introduced the TPI to prevent disorderly bond market movements, ensuring financial stability without imposing the rigid conditions seen in earlier programs.

3.    Germany’s Declining Economic Role:
Once the Eurozone’s growth engine, Germany faces structural challenges, including reduced competitiveness in the electric vehicle sector, the end of cheap Russian gas, and weaker trade ties with China. As Germany’s economic leadership erodes, its bonds (Bunds) may lose their status as the ultimate safe haven.

4.    Improved Stability in Peripherals:
Peripheral countries, particularly Italy, have gained investor trust due to improved governance and fiscal reforms. The government of Meloni has avoided destabilizing actions, in contrast to political turbulence in France and Germany, which has shaken investor confidence in these core nations.

Implications for the Future

The convergence in bond yields signals a potential paradigm shift in European financial markets. Countries previously labeled as risky are now seen as more stable, while core nations face growing uncertainty. This could mark the end of old biases, as investors increasingly value policy effectiveness and economic reform over historical stereotypes.

While challenges remain, particularly in France and Germany, the narrowing yield spreads suggest a more balanced perception of risk across the Eurozone. This trend could redefine the dynamics of European debt markets and the broader economic landscape.er time.

📌 Global Influence of the Dollar
Since World War II, the U.S. dollar has been the dominant global currency, used in most international transactions and held as the primary reserve by many countries. Its strength is rooted in U.S. economic stability and the liquidity of dollar-denominated assets. However, U.S. monetary policy, such as Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, can create economic problems in other countries, especially those that rely heavily on the dollar.

📌 The Dollar as a Political Tool
The U.S. uses the dollar as a foreign policy weapon, leveraging its control over the global financial system to impose sanctions on countries like Russia, Iran, and North Korea. These sanctions can cut nations off from international finance, as seen in the 2022 actions against Russia. However, this has prompted some nations to seek alternatives to reduce their reliance on the dollar.

📌 Challenges and Alternatives
Though the dollar remains dominant, there are potential challengers like the euro and China’s yuan. However, the euro lacks the political unity of a complete economic system, and the yuan is limited by government control and low global trust. Other options, like gold and Bitcoin, are considered stores of value but lack the stability or liquidity to replace the dollar. U.S. internal risks, such as political instability and debt ceiling battles, could also weaken the dollar’s global role over time.

📌 The European Central Bank (ECB) has reduced interest rates for the third time this year, lowering the deposit rate to 3.25%, as inflation slows quicklier than expected. The ECB anticipates inflation control will be achieved next year, adjusting its forecast from the second half of 2025. While the exact timeline for future rate cuts remains unclear, the central bank stressed that rates will stay restrictive as long as needed to manage inflation.

📌 Despite the earlier optimism for economic growth, the region’s economy has slowed, with inflation dropping below 2% for the first time since 2021. ECB President Lagarde acknowledged downside risks to growth but maintained that a recession is unlikely, projecting a «soft landing» for the economy. Challenges include geopolitical risks and uncertainties around global trade, particularly regarding the Middle East and potential U.S. tariffs under Donald Trump’s presidency.

📌 Economic performance remains mixed across the eurozone, with strong demand in southern countries like Spain and Greece, while Germany’s economy lags due to weaker demand from key markets such as China. Some analysts predict the ECB may continue cutting rates into 2025, bringing the deposit rate to 2% by year-end, in line with estimates for a neutral monetary policy stance. However, inflation risks persist, particularly in the services sector, keeping the ECB cautious in its approach to monetary easing.

Source: Bloomberg

📌 After decades of unstoppable growth, China is now facing one of its deepest economic crises, with a 2024 growth target of 5% that seems increasingly out of reach. Consumer spending is down, the real estate market is unstable, and tensions with the United States, limiting China’s access to advanced technologies like semiconductors, are hindering innovation and high-value-added production.

📌 The real estate sector, traditionally a key driver of China’s growth, is at the center of this crisis. After attempting to curb developers’ debt, the government triggered a market contraction, leading to the default of many companies and a decline in housing prices. This has eroded trust in the real estate market, once considered a safe investment and a source of wealth. The crisis has wiped out approximately $18 trillion in household wealth, driving consumers to save rather than spend. Youth unemployment hit record levels in August, further worsening the situation.

📌Despite government efforts to revive the real estate sector and restore consumer confidence, progress remains slow, and a recovery in household spending seems distant. Among the measures taken, in September the government cut interest rates, increased liquidity to incentivize lending, and promised funds to support the stock market. Bloomberg forecasts that these measures could boost growth by up to 1.1% over the next four quarters, but many analysts remain skeptical about their long-term effectiveness.
The risk is that China may enter a prolonged period of weak growth, like Japan’s “Lost Decade” in the 1990s, with global impacts due to the strong economic ties. According to the International Monetary Fund, China will remain the main contributor to global growth until 2028, accounting for 22.6%, more than double that of the United States. However, Beijing is at a crossroads, and its next decisions will be crucial not only for the country’s economic future but also for global economic stability.s.

🚩 𝐂𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧: Europe faces economic stagnation with a widening gap compared to the United States, primarily due to weak productivity growth linked to slow adoption of advanced technologies like AI, cloud computing, and robotics.

📌 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐥𝐚𝐠: Europe lags the U.S. and China in innovation, particularly in advanced tech sectors, resulting in fewer global tech leaders.

📌 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡 𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐬: Europe’s industries struggle with energy costs, especially natural gas, which is significantly higher than in the U.S., exacerbated by supply disruptions from Russia.

📌 𝐆𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐝𝐞𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐬: Europe’s reliance on external sources for raw materials and essential technologies has made it vulnerable to geopolitical risks, notably from Russia and China.

📌 𝐍𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞: Draghi calls for a substantial shift, proposing annual investments of €750-800 billion (4.4-4.7% of the EU’s GDP) to boost competitiveness, akin to the Marshall Plan.

📌 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐨𝐧 𝐝𝐞𝐛𝐭 𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞: to fund large-scale projects, Draghi suggests issuing joint debt instruments among EU member states to strengthen capital markets integration.

📌 𝐅𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦 𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐲: despite having a unified currency for over 25 years, the EU lacks a cohesive fiscal system, hampering its ability to respond to crises and finance strategic initiatives.

📌 𝐔𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐝: Draghi emphasizes that Europe must act now or face irreversible decline, urging for immediate and decisive measures to transform existing strengths into global competitiveness.