– On Thursday, the ECB announced a 75-bp interest rate hike, taking its benchmark deposit rate to 0.75%, aiming at ensuring “the timely return of inflation to the ECB’s 2% target”. Moreover, according to its statement, interest rates will increase further over the next months to face super-hot inflation.This move follows a 50-bp hike approved during the July meeting.

– With inflation hitting 9.1% in August, pushed by rising energy prices and exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine, the ECB is ready to partially sacrifice growth in order to ease the pressure on prices.Finally, the Central Bank also published its new forecasts: the economy is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2022, then 0.9% and 1.9% in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

Source: CNBC

Italian financial markets sold off on Thursday as Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s resigned, bringing an end to a national unity government seen to have had a rare opportunity to bring stability and unlock the nation’s economic potential.

The yield on Rome’s 10-year government bond jumped to 3.63 per cent after Draghi lost the support of members of his national unity coalition in a confidence vote on Wednesday night. Bond yields rise as their prices fall.

The moves on Thursday took the gap between Italian and German benchmark 10-year yields — a closely watched gauge of market stress — to 2.33 percentage points.

The ructions in Italian debt also put pressure on other eurozone bond markets, with Greek, Spanish and Portuguese yields also rising.

The FTSE gauge of Italian stocks slid 2% in early trading. The country’s largest banks, which are big holders of Italian debt, led the declines, with Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit down about 5% and 7% respectively.

Source: FT

On Wednesday morning, the Euro hit parity with the US Dollar, as the two currencies had a 1:1 exchange rate. This was the first time since 2002, when the Euro was still a relatively “young” currency.

Why? There are many reasons for the relative decline of the Euro: the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which has triggered the energy crisis and recession, the hawkish monetary policy from the Fed leading to higher interest rates, pushing investors toward the greenback, that has always represented a safe haven during crises.

Investors are closely watching how this Euro’s weakness will affect ECB’s next monetary policy decisions. The Central Bank will surely join the hawkish club (with some delay, probably), but it’s still not clear the size of the increase in interest rates. It will be crucial finding a balance between the need to fight inflation, sustaining the currency and avoiding a recession.

Source: Bloomberg, CNBC

Spanish inflation surges to 37-year high at 10%

Consumer prices in Spain rose at their fastest rate for 37 years in June, according to data released on Wednesday.

Spain’s harmonised index of consumer prices rose to 10% in June, up from 8.5 per cent in May, driven up by surging energy and food prices, in a further sign that inflationary pressures are intensifying across the eurozone.

Economists polled by Reuters had only expected Spanish inflation to increase to 8.7% in June.

The underlying rate of inflation in Spain, which excludes energy and food prices, rose to 5.5% in June, its highest since August 1993. “The increase in hotel, café and restaurant prices, higher than last year, also played a role,” said the national statistics agency.

Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez announced earlier this week that the government would extend its €16bn relief package for another six months and launch new measures to tackle inflation effects, in a plan that will cost an extra €9bn and still requires parliamentary approval.

The plan includes a reduction in sales tax on electricity, lower public transport costs, higher state pensions and one-off payments of €200 for people earning less than €14,000 a year.

Source: FT

Financing has always been a crucial matter to corporates regardless the sector they operate in. Notwithstanding, the current situation on debt capital markets, mostly due to the worldwide spread of Covid-19, is making it significantly more troubling than usual, leading companies to consider alternative solutions.

Primary Market Effects

On the primary market, companies are struggling to issue, failing in injecting fresh money into their business, or even roll their outstanding debt close to maturity. An example is given by the Commercial Paper market, always considered a flexible and low-cost solution for many companies, despite their credit rating. Nowadays, issuers, even those with IG status, have seen their financing costs more than tripled, now sitting at levels close to those registered during the global financial crisis. Looking at longer-term products, such as Corporate Bonds, the current situation is only worse, if possible. Indeed, putting aside a few exceptions, the market is pretty much dry for HY and non-rated issuers, and is very small for those who stand in between the IG and HY status, as investors fear a possible downgrade. In these times of uncertainty, most of issuance volumes come for highly rated issuers, benefiting from a credit profile that makes them eligible to Central Banks’ Purchase Programs.

Secondary Market Effects

On the secondary market, severe outflows have been seen lately on Corporate Bonds and CPs, hitting prices and putting a remarkable pressure on yield curves. On one hand, corporate investors are trying to keep their liquidity high by either selling their long-term positions or avoiding to roll those that are about to mature. On the other, institutional investors are not only willing to build a safety cushion with their cash but they are also coping with the constraints imposed by their investment policy. As a matter of fact, over the last few weeks, downgrades by the main credit rating agencies have led to a series of fallen angels, i.e. companies who have lost their IG status, flooding the market with junk bonds. In the US, the market has seen an increase in fallen angels of about $120bn, while in Europe, it is expected to be around €61bn, considering non-financial companies only, with €38bn and €110bn in a bullish and bearish cases, respectively. As a consequence, as most institutional investors have limits on junk issuers, they had to sell quickly their position making prices plummet.

Having stated the problems, how are companies dealing with them? Their main concern is related to debt repayment when investors are not willing to roll their positions or to take on new investments. Therefore, at first, the immediate solution to this problem has been reverting to their Banks in order to use their credit facilities, ready to use but very expensive compared to capital market solutions. Later on, they notably lifted their yield curve so as to attract new funds without any success, in most cases.

CENTRAL BANKS

As a consequence, other solutions have been implemented by Central Banks. In the US, the Fed has lowered its Fed funds target rate by 100bp to a range of 0-0.25%. Moreover, a new round of Quantitative Easing has started with securities purchases of at least $700 bn that will take place over the next months. In addition to this, a series of facilities has been put in place: the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF), allowing the Fed to buy on the secondary market, through a SPV, CPs issued by highly-rated companies, at least A1-P1-F1, and one-time purchase of CPs issued by issuers with at least A2-P2-F2 rating; the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility (PMCCF) and the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF) to buy bonds issued by eligible counterparties, respecting specific rating requirements, with maximum maturity of 4 years for the former and 5 years for the latter.

In the UK, the Bank of England has put in place many measures to support all market actors. Specifically, the cut of its interest rate to 0.1%, that will reduce costs in funding for banks, businesses and households; the Covid Corporate Financing Facility (CCFF), that supports firms’ liquidity by purchasing CPs issued by those rated at least A3-P3-F3, the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme, that provides SMEs with access to government-backed finance, with a guarantee up to 80%, for a maximum of GBP 5 million.

As far as the Eurozone is concerned, the ECB has expanded its existing QE, already at €20bn, by adding €120bn. Moreover, a new Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) has been put in place, that will allow the ECB, through its Local Central Banks, to buy marketable debt instruments, issued by companies with a minimum rating of A2-P2-F3, that have an initial maturity of 365/366 days or less and a minimum remaining maturity of at least 28 days.

In Sweden, the Riksbank has started to buy on auction base CPs issued by non-financial companies up to a total amount SEK 300bn. The papers need to have a residual maturity of up to three months and to be issued by companies with at least A3-P3-F3 rating. Moreover, the Bank has recently decided to buy Municipal Bonds for SEK 15bn.

NATIONAL MEASURES

In addition to these measures at European level, each country is implementing further solutions. In France, the Government has enacted a guarantee scheme to support bank financing to businesses, dealing not only with pre-existing loans but also new ones providing guarantees between 70% and 90% depending on the size of the company. In Germany, two main programs have been put in place: KfW-Unternehmerkredit, for established companies, and ERP-Gründerkredit-Universell, for those that have been in existence for less than five years. They will be channeled through local banks and will be equivalent to €200bn. As for SMEs, further €50bn have been put aside to support their business. In Italy, the Government has enforced a decree that will guarantee loans for SMEs and self-employed up to 90%, for a total amount of €200bn. Moreover, it has implemented a protection for those listed companies showing a weak stock market situation, that are considered strategic in the energy, defense and telecommunication sectors, in order to avoid foreign holdings overcoming the threshold of 10%. In Spain, the Government has activated a publicly guaranteed credit line through the ICO for a total amount of €100bn that, at least in the first round, will be provided through the five largest Spanish banks. The State will provide guarantees up to 70% and 80% depending on the size of the company. Finally, the Swedish Government has arranged a measure to guarantee up to 70% of the new loans provided by banks, allowing companies to borrow up to SEK 75 million in order to relieve the pressure on their liquidity.

Ongoing Process

As we have seen, Government and Central Banks’ responses has been quick, and the measures announced historical. Nevertheless, the completion of such actions turns out to be more complicated than first stated and some concerns are arising.

At the European Level, the response keeps adjusting as the effect of the crisis on the economy and on companies’ balance sheet are unfolding. We had the proof of that on 22nd of April when the Central Bank agreed to start accepting non-investment grade debt as collateral, on the path to follow the Fed and buy higher-quality junk bonds to partially limit the effect of possible fallen angels, as mentioned above. In the meantime, EU leaders are still discussing a possible 2 trillion-euro ($2.2 trillion) rescue plan for the region as an estimate of private-sector activity in the euro area plunged to just 13.5 from 29.7 in March (IHS Markit).

Concerning national intervention to guarantee liquidity to businesses, doubts are still on the table in some countries as most of measures taken are channeled through private banks. This uncertainty takes place at several levels, starting at the documentation to be drafted and going up the inequality of loans distribution between banks or between businesses. Indeed, in some countries, the implementation characteristics has led to favor specific banks and types of business, making it harder for an entire part of the economy to access the first wave of liquidity.

Paolo Barbusca

References:
– Bloomberg
– The Wall Street Journal
– Reuters
– S&Ps
– Federal Reserve
– Bank of England
– ECB
– Riskbank

Estimado Cliente, El pasado 27 de febrero 2020, NEW MOMENTUM envió un comunicado interno a los empleados con el Plan Específico de Prevención, y se les trasladaron las normas de comportamiento para protegerse a sí mismos y a su entorno, siguiendo las recomendaciones de la OMS y el Ministerio de Sanidad.

Desde NEW MOMENTUM queremos informarle que nuestra oficina ha estado siempre preparada para situaciones de emergencia de este tipo y para asegurar sus servicios a los clientes.

Actualmente, estamos operando con total normalidad y ofrecemos el nivel de calidad y servicio que es habitual. Para favorecer una comunicación fluida y segura, le aconsejamos y agradecemos que lo haga mediante el uso del correo electrónico.

Por último, solo quiero decirle que, en estos tiempos de incertidumbre, todos y cada uno de nosotros en New Momentum, estamos a su disposición para cualquier anticipación de problemática de financiación o de cualquier otro tipo, relacionado con nuestros servicios.

Sin otro particular, me despido atentamente.

This week, the Government Council released its decision on the monetary policy to support households, firms and banks during the current economy disfunction. The Council conducted the following package made of “ambitious and coordinated fiscal policy response”:

1.  In order to immediately provide liquidity support until June 2020, the Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTROs) – injecting low interest rate funding to banks with sovereign debt as collateral on the loans – will be delivered as being an effective backstop in case of need, carried out as a fixed rate tender procedure via an auction mechanism and an interest rate amounting to the average rate on deposit facility (-0,50%).
2. Afterwards, from June 2020 to June 2021, the Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs) will be applied to push banks to lend to small, medium-sized enterprises and households. With an interest rate on these TLTRO III being at 25 basis points below the average rate applied: The Main Refinancing Operation rate (MRO), rate at which banks can borrow money from the ECB.
3.  The European Central Bank decided not to change its interest rate on the main refinancing operations (0,00%), the interest rates on the margin lending facility (0,25%) and its deposit facility (-0,50%).
4.  It also decided to raise the bank’s asset purchases by a temporary envelope of an additional € 120 billion until the end of the year in order to concentrate on bonds issued by companies and to further lower borrowing costs for the private sector.
5.  Lastly, The ECB will fully reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the Asset Purchase Programme (APP).

Source: ECB.

In an uncontrolled scenario of the death toll outbreak, some sectors found themselves making the most of the situation to achieve record profits. Indeed, Asian-based companies such as Top Glove, a rubber surgical gloves producer, and Zhende Medical, a medical supplier, saw their stocks skyrocket by 14% and 33% at the beginning of the month.

As such, we could have thought that the global healthcare sector would have been less affected by the situation, but it happened to be hypothetical.

Indeed, as the S&P 500 fell by more than -11.5% since the start of the week, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund, composed by the biggest pharmaceuticals and health care equipment companies (Johnson & Johnson, UnitedHealth, Merck & Co, Pfizer, etc.), also lost more than 10% over the same period.

There are two main explanations to that:

Most pharmaceuticals company’s supply chain depends heavily on China, leading markets to fear a shortage. Indeed, Laboratories buy a large part of their bulk components, vaccines, anti-cancer drugs and generics from China. In the 1980s, drug companies chose to relocate part of their production to Asian Factories, where they kept their research and development activities due to cheaper Labor and more flexible regulations.

Thus, a lasting virus spread would potentially put global supply at risk. Therefore, governments are currently alarming healthcare professionals on taking the necessary measures to guarantee health coverage. A few days ago, French Pharmaceutical giant Sanofi responded to that by announcing, a few days ago, that it will relocate part of its production sties in Europe before 2022. Too late for Investors.

The other explanation to healthcare stocks downturns appears to be political with the rising likeliness to see Bernie Sanders as the 2022 election Democratic candidate. The Left-wing program of the politician contains a dismantling of America’s private health care system, which would be replaced by a government-run Medicare-for-All. On the markets side, as the investiture of the democratic candidate seems more and more probable, private health insurance actors such as UnitedHealth are taking a big hit with the stock dropping by -13% over the week.

Even though it is still unlikely to imagine such legislation to go through, this puts the lights back on a sector that has been at the center of discussions since Barack Obama’s election and his affordable Care Act in 2008, period that corresponds to UnitedHealth’s all time low in stock markets, before its impressive performance in the past years, under the new laws.

Authors: Emilie Mayer, Côme Vigoureux

Sources: Reuters, France Info, State Street SPDR, Investopedia

Brazil: Impact of Elections on Financial Markets, an Opportunity for Importers and Exporters?

Recent events in Brazil generated volatilities in different financial markets, with a drastic shift in commodities, currency, bonds and stocks prices. This trend has already had a consequent implication for domestic but also foreign companies doing business in Brazil. For example, Spanish exporters will benefit of a 17% depreciation of the EUR versus BRL (from 4.92 the September 14th to 4.08 the October 29th). This opportunity may represent an interesting opportunity for European companies involved in Brazil to hedge a potential comes back on the 4.50 area.

Stock Market

After a bloody month of October for Global Equity markets and indexes from all over the world taking big losses (Nasdaq & Nikkei: -9 %; China: -7,75 %; CAC 40 & DAX: -7 %; India: -5,75%), the only survivor appears to be Brazil. Indeed, the BOVESPA grew by 10% this last month of national election that ended with the victory of Jair Bolsonaro, far-right party candidate promising a market-friendly economic program.

Economy and Tax

Alongside with its counselor and future economy minister, Paulo Guedes, a University of Chicago economist and fund manager known for its market-friendly position, Bolsonaro promised to undertake reforms widely praised by national investors.

Firstly, the new cabinet plans on privatizing every state-owned firm, including both energy giants Eletrobas and Petrobas, to raise over $400 billion and reduce the budget gap. This symbolizes the business-friendly policy promised during the election including deregulation and tax exemptions for companies. This strengthened analyst view of the Brazilian stock market, the national Index is up 13% since September and trading way beyond historical levels, leading analysts say it could reach 100,000 by the end of the year (current level is around 88,000 while it was at 75,000 in September).

In order to bring deficit from $37bn to “zero” as promised, the elected president planned spending cuts by implementing, what will appear to be the main challenge of its mandate, a pension system reform. This ambition to reform the country led investors to endorse Bolsonaro’s candidacy over the left-wing candidate. Moreover, the Workers Party is considered by many Brazilians to be responsible for the country’s worst recession in history. Indeed, the GDP of the eighth-largest economy in the world shrank by almost 8% and close to 13 million people are unemployed.

Rate market

The announcement of reforms and project to reduce deficit already had an impact on financial markets, firstly in the national bond market with the yield on the 10Y Government Bond going back to last month of May levels at 10% (against 12,5% in September – See Below).

Currency market

Those announcements combined with the assurance that the Central Bank will be able to act independently brought back the domestic currency to the milestone of 3,6 per dollar with analysts planning a stabilization at those levels. Following the strengthening of the Real, Price of nationally produced commodities such as Sugar and Coffee (Brazil being responsible for a Third of worldwide production) rallied last month. Indeed, a stronger Brazilian real makes commodity exports less attractive for holders of other currencies (See Graph below).

Even though investors have welcomed Bolsonaro’s election positively, no details of this program have been released and there is no certainty on whether it will be approved or not. Indeed, his Social Liberal Party (PSL) doesn’t hold the majority at the house of Congress, which could make it more complicated to vote constitutional amendments such as a pension reform.

On the financial markets side, analysts believe the Bovespa index could resume its rise during the next months if the new government (official on the 1st of January) materialize its reforms in 2019. Otherwise, this positive trend won´t be sustainable.

Conclusion

Volatility doesn’t necessarily mean bad news, with some anticipation and expertise on its side, it could also represent a strong opportunity for any kind of business. New Momentum can assist you in all kind of capital market problematics.

Côme Vigoureux

Last 15th of March, Standard & Poor’s decided to upgrade Portugal’s credit rating to BBB, an announcement quickly followed by the one of Moody’s, which, chose to leave the one of Italy unchanged. Later this months the S&P’s maintained Spain’s rating at A- with a positive outlook, opening the debate on a future increase in the short run. In a climate of Bond Rallies, those decisions drove investors to rush on those countries’ bonds, as well as those of their neighbors.

What parameters did rating agencies consider in their assessment? What can we expect from the apparent recovery of “Mediterranean” economies in the debt capital markets, both sovereign and corporate?

Facts and Macro Explanations

In Portugal, the reforms undertaken by the government over the last years appear to pay off as the countries’ economy is expected to grow between 1,5% and 1,7% during the next two years. Moreover, Portugal is expected to record a budgetary surplus (including the debt reimbursement) by 2020, allowing them to reduce their debt to GDP ratio. Enough for S&P’s to upgrade the countries’ credit rating.

Net contributions to real GDP growth (Portugal) | In percentage points

Sources: Banco de Portugal and Statistics Portugal

The picture seems a little less bright for Italy where the Treasury revised its GDP Growth estimate to 0,1% , after slipping into recession in the second half of 2018. Moody’s decision appears to be more motivated by next week’s agenda and it still unclear whether the other rating agencies will also postpone report scheduled at the end of May. Indeed, the vote on 2020’s budget proposal is scheduled next month and the possible increase of the Value Added tax with it. Moreover, the outcome of the EU election is likely to have an impact on the Government’s policy.

In Spain, S&P’s decided to maintain the current rating of A- with a positive outlook, although some analysts were expecting to see it rise. The agency pointed out that their position could evolve in the coming months if the government manages to consolidate the deficit level and improve the payout of exterior debt. On the political side, the outcome of the Catalonia crisis and the anticipated election could also be preponderant. The Spanish economy is expected to grow at 2,2% this year and then deaccelerate as the economic cycle will mature, sustained by a growing internal demand, according to S&P’s. The rating agency also expects the private consumption to rise as salaries will keep growing. Nevertheless, the recent growth of the minimum salary could reduce the pace of new employments creation.

Consequence on Sovereign Bond Markets

Shortly after Moody’s decision to leave Italy’s Baa3 credit rating unchanged, the Italian Treasury 10y Bond yield was pushed to 2.42%, its lowest since May 2018. Its spread over Germany’s narrowed to its tightest since last September at 234 basis points, far from its end of 2018’s level when it crossed the 300bp.

On its side, Portugal’s 10y bond yield dropped to its lowest in at least 25 years, to 1.25%. This only confirmed the market trend as the gap over Germany has narrowed by about 30 basis points since the start of the year and was last at about 137 basis points after investors rallied on the German Bond, pushing it to negative levels.

At the end, Spanish 10y Yield curve could be even more significant to analyze investors views on the region. Indeed, if S&P’s announcements on Spain didn’t influence consequently its 10y Yield curve, the one on Portugal’s upgrade had it decreased by 4.5%. Now looking back to the last 6 months, the Spanish curve went from 1,73% to 1,10% since October, showing investors overall optimism on the region.

Spain Generic Govt 10Y Yield

Source: Bloomberg

To recall, Spain broke a national record on its 10-year bond sale last January, with about 47 billion euros of orders on a 10 billion-euro issue. This paved the way for Italy and Portugal to go out in the market. But the most iconic case is surely the one of Greece that issued its first 10y Note in the last decade after Moody’s improved the country’s credit rating to B1 with stable Outlook. This allowed Athens to capitalize on it and go test investors’ confidence after the mixed success of a previous a shorter-term bond sale two months before. In the meantime, yields on old 10y bonds dropped to their lowest since 2006 (It is currently trading around 3.77%). To recall, Greece is just going out of one the biggest recession in its history and was disabled to issue new bonds, receiving emergency loans from the EU and the IMF for financing. This drove the Government Bond 10y yield to a record high of 48.60% back in 2012.

First sovereign issuers, then corporates?

It is usual to see banks benefit from countries upgrades, especially in southern Europe. This time, the upgrade of Portugal’s rating was quickly followed by S&P’s rising Santander’s long and short-term credit rating in Portugal to BBB and A-2. In Spain, Fitch improved Abanca’s rating to BBB- and F3, meaning that the Galician bank is now considered as Investment Grade. In the meantime, it increased Liberbank’s rating from BB to BB+ with a stable outlook.

It could not take so long to see the trend spreading to companies which are partly owned by local governments or with the biggest exposure to such economies.

Côme Vigoureux

Sources : Reuters, Bloomberg, S&P’s, Moody’s, Fitch